Skip to content
requiem202 edited this page Oct 21, 2018 · 2 revisions

English Premier League match result prediction

Features

  • HomeMatch
  • B365Say
  • B365Diff
  • Last5AgainstThisOpponentWon
  • Last5AgainstThisOpponentDraw
  • Last3AgainstThisOpponentWon
  • Last3AgainstThisOpponentDraw
  • LastAgainstThisOpponentWon
  • LastAgainstThisOpponentDraw
  • PointsSoFar
  • AdjustedPointsSoFar
  • Last5Won
  • Last5Draw
  • Last3Won
  • Last3Draw
  • LastMatch

Take away

  • No significant difference between leagues.
  • Bigger names have better accuracy.
  • Features that actually decreases accuracy
    • CornersSoFar
    • ShotsSoFar
    • ShotsOnTargetSoFar
    • GoalsSoFar
    • ConcededSoFar

Nitty gritty detail

https://github.com/requiem202/footballdata

Test data:

  • Train: 2005-2015
    • 10 years
    • 400-500 records
    • Some team is even less. Because we only use data from the top league of each country.
  • Validate: 2016
  • Test: 2017
  • 14 features
  • 23 teams
  • Accuracies
    • English: 50%
    • Italian 57%
    • Spanish: 49%
    • French: 47%
Clone this wiki locally